People often quote this 10 – 20% figure, and while true, it is possible that we could get far more out of cellulosic ethanol by focusing on bumping the CAFE standards.

If cars got 40 mpg here like they do in say, China, we could get closer to 40% of our fuel from Cellulosic ethanol.

If some of the more fantastical cars being worked on in the Automotive X-Prize competition became the norm for commuter cars raising our CAFE to 100 mpg we could easily provide over 75% of our fuel from cellulose.

So if we stick with our current inefficient vehicles then yes, ethanol is a dead end. On the other hand if we get our CAFE standards where they can potentially be, we can actually displace a huge amount of the oil we import annually.

Granted getting the CAFE standards up that high is a difficult feat, but in my opinion it’s the only way to insure the U.S. will remain a superpower in the generations to come, so it’s a sacrifice I’d argue we must make.

“Today biofuels are mostly derived from traditional feedstocks such as corn, but one day soon could be derived from cellulosic materials, an advancement that would fundamentally alter the geopolitics of energy.”

Energy politics begin and end with some countries having immense DENSE sources of transportable energy stores, namely, oil. Cellulosic ethanol (if it can be perfected), is none of these things, and can’t be expected to provide more than 10-20% of our domestic energy needs, tops.

Cellulosic biomass is better used to make renewable methane anyway (no costly distillation step needed, and an infrastructure is already in place). PHEVs have a much better chance of significantly impacting the “geopolitics of energy” (that still makes me chuckle) than ethanol ever will.