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rare-earth-mine-caliWean vehicles off of one limited resource — petroleum — and get them hooked on another: lithium. That’s what some critics have raised about switching over to electric cars that use lithium-ion batteries, since the U.S. imports most of its lithium from Chile and Argentina, while Bolivia has enough deposits to become a major lithium provider. But amid all the hubbub about the looming lithium squeeze, another resource trend is taking shape that has the potential to drive some big changes in advanced battery and vehicle technology: a group of metals known as rare earth elements, or REE.

According to Lux Research analyst Jacob Grose, “Rare earths are used very much in nickel metal hydride batteries,” like the Toyota Prius and Honda Insight. “Even though…hybrids use only a fraction of the worldwide output of these metals, if there is a shortage and prices rise, it will definitely lead to cost increases in today’s hybrids.”

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skylinesolarimage1Skyline Solar plans to begin commercial production of — and officially start selling — its concentrating photovoltaic systems in the fourth quarter of this year, Tim Keating, vice president of marketing, tells us. It could be a risky time to enter the market, with analysts predicting an oversupply of several gigawatts of solar products and capacity this year, but the company is betting that the market will start to improve by the time it’s fully ramped up.

Starting toward the end of this year, “multiple megawatts” of Skyline’s systems will be manufactured on automobile lines – or more specifically, on metal shops that make parts for the automobile industry, Keating said. The Mountain View, Calif.-based startup also has been working with project developers to plan commercial projects starting next year, he said. While Keating declined to disclose details, he said the first few orders are for 500-kW systems. One team is working on 15-50 MW projects in the Southwest, he added, although the first of those could take another year to complete.

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graphene1Less than a year has passed since Quercus Trust and 21Ventures threw down $500,000 in seed money for a small Austin, Texas, startup, Graphene Energy, with a big idea for disrupting the energy storage market. The idea: Develop a technology using graphene, a one-atom-thick sheet of carbon, with at least twice the storage capacity of commercially available ultracapacitors — devices that have ultra-fast charge and discharge times, but lag far behind batteries in terms of the amount of energy they can store.

Fast-forward six months, and Graphene Energy has used that seed money to make big strides toward its target of achieving twice the storage capacity — at least in the lab. CEO Dileep Agnihotri told us in an interview today that the startup is on track to reach its goal by year’s end. At that point, Agnihotri tells us it expects to raise a new round of investment or secure stimulus funds (the company has applied for grants under ARPA-E and smart grid programs, among others) to help it go into the next phase: taking the technology out of the lab and packaging it into ultracapacitors.

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As Germany’s Solarstravaganza kicks off in Munich on Wednesday, we’re reminded of the role the country’s government has played this decade in nurturing the solar industry this far. Few companies understand that role better than First Solar, which receives about 62 percent of its revenue from Germany. The Tempe, Ariz., company makes thin-film solar modules, which are less efficient than polysilicon modules but also — until now at least — significantly cheaper.

That “until now” part has been nagging at First Solar more and more. For years, a shortage of polysilicon drove up prices, making First Solar’s wares that much more appealing and turning its stock into a safe haven in the solar sector. In 2009, the shortage has become a glut. No longer is the commoditization of polysilicon just a vague threat lurking in First Solar’s distant future — it’s getting much closer to being real.

In late March, Barron’s laid out the bearish case for First Solar, and analysts soon echoed its concerns. Investors shrugged: First Solar’s shares have risen 44 percent since then. Tuesday, another analyst returned to that theme, only with some evidence that European customers are already shifting from First Solar to polysilicon solar companies.

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Solar-grade silicon prices are falling — at least according to the latest New Energy Finance report due out this week. Back in August, the London-based research firm forecast that prices would fall in 2009, and Jenny Chase, a senior associate at the firm, tells us that the prediction appears to be coming true. The conclusion is the opposite of one that another research company, Photon Consulting, presented earlier this month forecasting that prices will rise this year.

The price of silicon, the active material at the core of most of the solar market, is important because it plays a major role in setting solar-panel prices and margins. For the last few years, a shortage of solar-grade silicon increased prices all along the manufacturing chain, boosting panel prices — and margins — as their supply failed to keep up with the perceived demand.

“Spot prices” — the most current value of silicon being traded on the open market — are considered the leading bellwether of silicon prices because they are more responsive to market changes than long-term contract prices, which are set months — and even years — in advance. If spot prices are far higher than contract prices, that indicates that silicon is worth more than it was expected to be worth when the contracts were signed, while significantly lower prices indicate the price of silicon has fallen more than expected.

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So it looks like San Jose, Calif., may not be getting the Tesla Motors Model S factory after all. While the Silicon Valley electric sports car maker said in September that it planned to build an assembly plant for its second-generation vehicle at an 89-acre plot between Zanker Road and Highway 237, Tesla spokesperson Rachel Konrad tells us this morning that the company is seriously considering other sites. “We never gave up on other contingency plans throughout the state,” she said. (hat tip to The San Jose Business Journal.)

Tesla is now especially interested in moving the planned facility to a “brownfield” — such as an old site for chipmaking in Silicon Valley or land left over from the aeronautics industry in Southern California — that can be rehabilitated and built upon instead, as the San Jose Business Journal reports.

That’s because the Department of Energy loan program through which the company intends to finance construction (or at another site, retooling) of the facility favors projects on brownfields (two birds, one stone: environmental cleanup and cleantech development). The Zanker Road site is an undeveloped “greenfield,” and could weaken Tesla’s application for $250 million in federal funds for the assembly plant.

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When Toyota Prius sales sank more than 40 percent last May compared with the same month a year earlier, the automaker blamed it on a global battery shortage. But while the 7 percent drop in fiscal 2009 sales Toyota forecast this week has less to do with batteries and more to do with the global economy, part of Toyota and other automakers’ recovery could have everything to do with supplying parts and technology for all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Most electric vehicles now in the works remain at least a year away from production, and further still from profitability. But a growing number of automakers in Europe, Japan and the U.S. are betting that the energy storage component — whether lithium-ion or nickel-hydride — will become a lucrative sideline in a next-generation automotive industry. Moves by companies including Toyota, Daimler, Nissan and Tesla Motors, which aim to supply third-party automakers with battery packs and chargers, may represent some of the first signs of real revenue in the high-tech vehicle market.

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Piles of lithium carbonate-rich salt in Bolivia.

Lithium-ion batteries are everywhere — in your phone, laptop, and by this time next year, maybe your car. The technology is slated for GM’s Chevy Volt, Toyota’s plug-in Prius, and electric versions of the Daimler Smart and BMW Mini.

Until recently, lithium went primarily into ceramics and glass. Now batteries make up one-fifth of the world’s end-use market for the mineral — a share that will only grow if the auto industry goes where lithium-ion startups like ActaCell, A123 Systems and Imara are betting it will. But shortages could stop an emerging industry in its tracks — or dramatically reshape it — within a decade: Mitsubishi estimates that lithium demand will outstrip supply as early as 2015.

The U.S. Geological Survey’s mineral commodity specialist on lithium, Brian Jaskula, offers a more conservative estimate, forecasting that demand will begin to drive lithium prices up in the next 10 to 15 years. But the signs are clear: Lithium, which now costs less than a buck per kilogram, will not stay cheap for long.

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world_future_energy_summit-2008Clean energy companies and climate wonks have convened this week in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, for the second annual World Future Energy Summit. Think of it, as the New York Times put it recently, as a Davos gathering on renewable power. On Monday (day 1 of the summit), Sultan al-Jaber — CEO of the multibillion-dollar state-owned energy company, Masdarannounced a goal of sourcing 7 percent of the emirate’s energy from renewables by 2020, up from zilch today.

Needless to say, that would be a huge leap for the oil-rich gulf states, which you’d expect to be among the last regions to push for alternatives to fossil fuels. IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri had this to say about the target, as reported by Time: “It clearly shows that a country that has no immediate economic need to diversify its energy production is willing and able to do so.” This week’s summit offers a glimpse of the future energy economy. If you read nothing else about Abu Dhabi and the first few days of WFES, don’t miss these 10 things:

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Any time business goes bad, you can expect lawsuits to follow; the cleantech industry is no exception, and the last year saw plenty of court action.

While we’re all ready to embrace 2009, we couldn’t help but take one more look back at 2008 and draw up this list of the most memorable lawsuits in cleantech. The Top 10 include three from electric car maker Tesla, six involving large solar manufacturing firms and one weirdo wildcard. Who’s going to turn to the courts in 2009?

1). Emcore’s Class Action: The latest, slipped in just before the turn of the new year, involves a proposed class-action lawsuit against Emcore, a solar and broadband company, which claims that Emcore had overstated the size of its order backlog and artificially inflated its share price. The news sent the company’s shares plunging from a 52-week high of $15.70 per share on Jan. 2, 2008 to close at $1.08 per share Friday, a year later. What a way to start out 2009.

2). Magna vs. Tesla: Tesla Motors had more than its fair share of lawsuits in 2008. First of all Magna Powertrain, which designs, tests and makes powertrains, filed one against the electric-sports-car startup in February, alleging that Tesla owed it $5.6 million for unpaid transmission work.

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