One year ago, two key trends dominated the solar industry: economic uncertainty and scarce credit. If solar companies were to survive, they needed to scramble to adapt their strategies to both. Today, the economy is more stable and credit is freer, and so the industry faces two different trends. The first — a supply glut of solar products — has been in the making for years, and it keeps pushing prices down. The second is only beginning to emerge, but could take root: Demand has picked up for solar installations, especially in homes.

That’s the picture being portrayed in solar earnings reports, and the conference calls to discuss them this week. Real Goods Solar said on Thursday that its revenue in the third quarter rose 122 percent compared with the same period last year, including the addition of companies it’s acquired in the past year. Excluding those acquisitions, revenue still grew 41 percent. John Schaeffer, Real Goods Solar’s president, said a lot of the increase came from homeowners. In a statement, he noted that the company saw “the return of strong demand for residential solar” during the third quarter.

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Its looking like the solar industry may be heading back into a not-so-sunny period, at least as far as corporate earnings are concerned.

First, SunPower indicated last week that its 2009 revenue would be weaker than many investors had expected, sparking a selloff that has since stripped 24 percent from the stock’s market value. Then Germany, whose subsidies have been crucial for growth at SunPower and First Solar, indicated it may be softening its solar-friendly stance. Now First Solar has added to the sense of disappointment, saying that not only was revenue in the third quarter weaker than expected, but profit margins would continue to deteriorate.

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Following months of bearish stories about the prospects for thin-film solar, First Solar delivered the kind of results for the second quarter that Wall Street likes to refer to as “blowout.” Revenue and net income nearly doubled in the recent 3-month period and both were wildly ahead of investor forecasts. But the company remains cautious about the rest of 2009, saying low demand and falling prices could remain problems.

First Solar said its revenue in the quarter ended June 27 totaled $526 million, up 97 percent from the same quarter a year ago and up 26 percent from a year ago. Net income came in at $180.6 million, or $2.11 per share, compared with $69.7 million, or 85 cents per share, a year ago. Analysts had been looking for revenue of $459 million and a net profit of $1.62 a share.

First Solar’s revenue grew while its profit margins fell last quarter, adding further to profits. Its operating income rose to 38.8 percent of revenue in the second quarter, compared with an operating margin of 33.2 percent in the year-ago period.

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Cleantech companies are painting a cautious but encouraging picture with their most recent quarterly numbers. A week after solar panel maker SunPower posted surprisingly strong earnings, EnerNOC has delivered better-than-expected numbers and raised its forecast for the rest of the year.

In the quarter ended June 30, EnerNOC saw revenue of $42.4 million, or 79 percent higher than the same quarter a year earlier and above the $39 million that analysts had estimated. Net loss totaled 29 cents a share, compared with a loss of 54 cents a share in the same quarter last year and narrower than the 33-cent loss average forecast of analysts.

The company also indicated that its financials for the rest of the year would come in stronger than Wall Street has been expecting. It raised its revenue estimate to a midpoint of $178.5 million vs. the Street’s estimate of $167 million, and a net loss of 81 cents a share compared with analyst expectations of a 98-cent loss. In after-hours trading, EnerNOC’s stock rose as much as 12 percent from its official Monday close to change hands for $27.70.

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The past year has been a brutal one for solar companies. Capital dried up, as did demand for solar goods. Prices dropped while inventories grew. But if SunPower’s earnings are any indication, some solar companies are weathering the harsh market in ways that can still turn a profit.

SunPower’s stock surged 20 percent in after-hours trading Thursday after posting earnings that, while down from a year earlier, showed strong improvement over the previous quarter and was well above what analysts were expecting.

In the three months ended June 28, SunPower’s revenue fell 22 percent to $297.6 million from the same quarter in 2008, but grew 39 percent from the previous quarter. Net income totaled 26 cents a share, compared with a profit of 37 cents a share a year earlier and a net loss of 6 cents a share in the first quarter.

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Cleantech IPOs have been in short supply this year, despite the need of many startups for capital. But this week should bring at least one piece of encouraging news: Come Tuesday, geothermal energy producer Magma Energy, based in Vancouver, British Columbia, is expected to see its stock start trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker MXY. The offering of 66.7 million shares will raise C$100 million ($86.1 million) for Magma. A PDF of the prospectus can be found here.

Geothermal energy relies on heat from molten rock, which can get as hot as 5,000 degrees Celsius, and comes relatively close to the Earth’s crust. Magma creates reservoirs of superheated water that can be tapped, extracted and used to power turbines that generate electricity. Geothermal plants have been in operation for 100 years and they are a reliable source of power; unlike wind and solar power, geothermal energy is constant. “A geothermal plant’s high capacity factor also enables it to produce roughly three to five times more power than a wind or solar project of a similar size,” the prospectus notes.

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Hoku Scientific, which makes polysilicon used by solar manufacturers, weighed in with another quarter of plunging revenue and red ink on Thursday. It also warned investors that it may lack “sufficient funds to complete the construction of its polysilicon plant” or even enough “to continue as a going concern for the next 12 months.”

The dismal quarter wasn’t a surprise. Last quarter, Hoku explained that a change in revenue recognition was unfavorable to its financials this year. More worrisome — and the news that sent its stock dropping 41 percent in after-market trading Thursday — was that “going concern” part. It means that, if Hoku can’t raise enough cash in the next year, it may not be able to continue operations and could face bankruptcy.

The financial problem centers around a $390 million facility in Pocatello, Idaho, that Hoku hopes will start producing polysilicon for sale next year. To help finance the plant, Hoku had been signing contracts with solar customers like Suntech and Solarfun and receiving prepayments or deposits from them during construction.

In January, Hoku warned that some customers were having trouble making prepayments, with some renegotiating smaller contracts and others simply defaulting. In a press release Thursday, Hoku explained that the situation hasn’t improved since then and that if it can’t find new customers or raise new capital, the plant’s construction — and revenues from it — will be in jeopardy.

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First Solar has been under pressure lately from analyst downgrades and financial publications warning of a solar glut. On Tuesday, an analyst at Broadpoint AmTech stepped in with some reasons why the stock might rally beginning with the company’s analyst’s day, scheduled for June 24.

That analyst, John Hardy, argues that First Solar may have a stronger year or two ahead of it than investors are giving it credit for. He believes that the company will show during its analysts’ day that its costs have declined this year. Once the lower costs are clear, the price differential between its thin-film solar and polysilicon solar won’t seem as daunting as they do now.

Thanks to its popular and profitable thin-film solar products, First Solar’s stock has been a strong performer in bull markets and a defensive choice in grimmer times. But ever since the latest solar rally began in March, First Solar has been a laggard. While its shares have risen an impressive 50 percent in the last three months, those of JA Solar and Suntech Power have more than doubled, while shares of Solarfun and Trina Solar have more than tripled.

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For the first time since last summer, oil prices are ratcheting higher again. But unlike last year, when surging energy prices sparked an increase in investor interest among alternative energies, an oil price surge in 2009 might make life more complicated for cleantech startups.

Oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange has risen 54 percent so far this year, to $68 a barrel, jumping 3.4 percent on Monday alone. China, aided by government stimulus, has seen manufacturing activity rise for three straight months, marking a steady increase in the country’s thirst for oil. Supplies may not keep up with rising demand for long: U.S. inventories have been falling for four weeks, and many oil companies delayed new development once the economy slowed.

Back again are predictions of triple-digit oil prices. A McKinsey report argues that a new oil shock could come as early as next year. Speculators who agree are helping to push up oil prices even before the economy is recovering.

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As Germany’s Solarstravaganza kicks off in Munich on Wednesday, we’re reminded of the role the country’s government has played this decade in nurturing the solar industry this far. Few companies understand that role better than First Solar, which receives about 62 percent of its revenue from Germany. The Tempe, Ariz., company makes thin-film solar modules, which are less efficient than polysilicon modules but also — until now at least — significantly cheaper.

That “until now” part has been nagging at First Solar more and more. For years, a shortage of polysilicon drove up prices, making First Solar’s wares that much more appealing and turning its stock into a safe haven in the solar sector. In 2009, the shortage has become a glut. No longer is the commoditization of polysilicon just a vague threat lurking in First Solar’s distant future — it’s getting much closer to being real.

In late March, Barron’s laid out the bearish case for First Solar, and analysts soon echoed its concerns. Investors shrugged: First Solar’s shares have risen 44 percent since then. Tuesday, another analyst returned to that theme, only with some evidence that European customers are already shifting from First Solar to polysilicon solar companies.

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