The company said that revenue in the three months ended December 26, 2009, totaled $641.3 million, up 48 percent from $433.7 million in the same period a year earlier. The revenue figure was also 33 percent higher than revenue in the third quarter of 2009. First Solar posted a net profit of $141.6 million, or $1.65 a share, compared with $1.61 a share a year earlier. Analysts on Wall Street had been looking for revenue of $581.4 million and a net profit of $1.52 a share.

For all of 2009, First Solar’s revenue was $2.07 billion, up 65 from 2009, while net profit was $640.1 million, or $7.53, up from $4.24 a year earlier.

Gross margin fell to 41.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 from 53.9 percent a year earlier as the company offered rebates to customers in Germany, its largest market, to keep prices of its modules competitive. Operating margin fell to 22.6 percent from 37.2 percent.

For the full year in 2010, First Solar said it forecast its revenue to come in between $2.7 billion and $2.9 billion, while net income would reach between $6.05 a share and $6.85 a share. The guidance was unchanged from that delivered by the company in December.

Since late October, when First Solar reported its last – and disappointing – quarterly earnings, the company’s stock price has slumped. After closing at $151.58 on Oct. 28, it reached as low as $109.33 this month, a 28 percent decline. But the stock was erratic immediately following the earnings release, briefly rising as high as $128.90 and as low as $117.11. First Solar’s stock closed active trading at $126.29, up 1.7 percent.

In a conference call with analysts, First Solar CEO Robert Gillette outlined positive and negative factors facing the company in 2010. Among the positives were an improvement in project financing and strength in the North American market, particularly with U.S. utilities.

Among the negatives were a decline in demand driven by changes in German feed-in tariffs. In fact, Gillette said that global supply will probably exceed demand in the second half of the year as silicon modules prices continue to decline.

Investors seemed inclined to focus on the negatives. First Solar has been managing the falling module prices well, cutting costs and pushing up revenue so that it reached the guidance for 2009 it set over a year ago. But investors who once regarded the stock as the safest in the solar sector, can’t shake their case of First Solar jitters.

Image courtesy of First Solar.

The Boston-based company said revenue in the quarter ended December 31, 2009, rose 36 percent from the same quarter a year earlier. The net loss in the period totaled $15.2 million, or 64 cents a share, compared with a 61-cent loss a year earlier. Analysts were looking for a loss of 65 cents, according to Thomson Reuters.

EnerNoc’s stock price has more than tripled over the past year as more companies have turned to demand response systems to better manage their energy usage during a recession, when companies grow more determined to cut costs. Since going public in the spring of 2007, EnerNoc posted loss after loss as the company built out its infrastructure. It finally posted a $27 million net profit in the third quarter of 2009 on record revenue of $103 million.

Some of the loss was attributed to EnerNoc’s purchase of Cogent Energy, a Concord, Calif.,-based company with 30 employees that monitors energy usage. EnerNoc said at the time the acquisition was announced that the deal would help it serve smaller facilities that have less sophisticated control systems.

Adding to the loss, the cost of revenue rose 49 percent to $18 million. So gross margins took a hit in the quarter, as EnerNoc’s gross profit fell to 32.7 percent from 38.6 percent in the year-ago quarter. For the entire year, the company’s gross margin was 45.3 percent. In an earnings statement, EnerNoc didn’t explain the increase in cost of revenues.

In a more encouraging note, EnerNoc’s operating cash flow increased to $8.1 million in the quarter from $3 million in the previous quarter. The company saw negative cash flow of $15.2 million in the year-ago quarter. Operating cash flows are watched as a measure of the money a company is making through its actual operations.

The company said it would return to profitability later this year, forecasting a net profit between 24 cents a share and 34 cents a share for the entire year. However, EnerNoc expects to see a loss between 70 cents a share and 76 cents a share in the first quarter of 2010. Revenue for the year will reach between $255 million an $268 million, versus $190.6 million in 2009.

Despite the bullish outlook, the immediate reaction among investors was disappointment. In after-hours trading, EnerNoc’s stock was down 4.4 percent at $32.20, essentially giving up the gains it saw during offical market hours Thursday.

The first week or so of a calendar year can be an interesting — if not always accurate — gauge of how investors are feeling about a sector of stocks. Some of the bigger names in solar energy saw a healthy gain in their share prices amid strong volume, signaling a renewed confidence among investors. As of the end of trading Monday, Solarfun was up 36 percent, while Yingli Green Energy and JA Solar were both up 18 percent. Overall, the Claymore/MAC Solar Energy Index was up 11 percent after the first six days of trading, compared with a 1 percent gain in the Nasdaq.

It took only three days to give back most of those gains. The bad news came from Europe, where France said it would cut feed-in tariffs for solar installations and Germany indicated it would do the same in a few months. After trading Thursday, The Claymore/Mac Index was up 2.8 percent, just a bit above the Nasdaq’s 1.1 percent gain.

France had been paying homeowners and businesses 55 euro cents ($0.80) per kilowatt hour for rooftop solar intsallations. On Wednesday, it announced it would cut that tariff to 42 euro cents ($0.61). As Bloomberg explained:

France cut tariffs for electricity produced from rooftop solar panels by 24 percent in an overhaulFollowing a “speculative bubble” that started in November, the Energy Ministry decided it would reject any applications from generators that hadn’t already applied for grid connection, according to the statement. Others will have to re-apply under the new tariff regime.

Then on Thursday, reports emerged that Germany would also cut its solar subsidies. Such a move had been expected for some time, but Germany’s reduction was greater than many had been expecting. According to Tech Trader Daily:

In a research note, Deutsche Bank’s Germany-based analyst, Alexander Karnick, says the report, if true, would be worse than expected for the solar sector “on several levels.” He contends that the consensus was for a roughly 10% cut in the country’s feed-in tariff program in June or July; the story suggests a larger cut, and a quicker implementation. A subsidy cut of that magnitude, he thinks, could trigger a round of price cutting by the solar wafer companies.

In short, the allocation of investor money into solar during the first several days of 2010 left some stocks ripe for a round of profit taking once bad news surfaced. It didn’t take long for that bad news to arrive, and there will surely be more in an industry known for its two-steps-forward, one-step-back method of progress.

But there are other signs that solar energy is moving forward. eSolar, a solar-thermal company, signed an agreement with China’s Penglai Electric to build 2 gigawatts of solar thermal projects in China this decade. The U.S. is offering tax credits to greentech manufacturers that could generate tens of thousands of new jobs. And private investments are picking up even if some government subsidies are disappearing.

Solar bulls may have been dealt a hard blow this week, but then again 2010 has only just started.

Image courtesy of jurvetson’s photostream Flickr Creative Commons.

A123System’s offering priced at $13.50 a share on Sept. 23, well above its previous proposed price range of between $8 a share and $9.50 a share. Its share price surged 50 percent on its first day to close at $20.29. But by late November, it had fallen back below $15 a share as Goldman put a price target of $14 a share on the stock, arguing that good news had been priced in. Goldman, a lead underwriter of the IPO, helped determine that offering price.

But Goldman’s sober outlook couldn’t hold the stock down for long, and A123’s shares are back at $22.39 as of Tuesday’s close. The rebound was helped along by a joint venture with SAIC Motor Corp., a major Chinese  carmaker, to sell battery syStems for electRic vehicles in China just as cleantech and auto sales are seeing growth in that country. At the time, an A123 executive told Reuters that the company was “looking to be basically the market leader in China, both in the truck and passenger car market.”

That turbulence may continue for a while. In a recent research note, Deutsche Bank said it expects battery prices to decline about 25 percent by 2015 from the current level of around $500 per kilowatt hour. Following a tour of A123System’s battery plants in China and Korea, Deutsche Bank felt that the company was ready to scale up to meet bigger demands.

“The maturity of operations, level of automation, and depth of manufacturing experience within each company’s subsidiaries gave us increased confidence that production scaling is a manageable risk.”

That makes for a potentially bountiful future, but the problem for investors today is that revenue and profits at A123Systems should begin to ramp up after 2012.

Meanwhile, there is the issue Goldman raised, which is that all the attention that A123Systems attracted in the IPO — which was the largest of 2009 — may have left it overpriced for the time being. Another analyst, Theodore O’Neill at Kaufman Brothers, saw a better bargain in Ener1, which shares some similarities with A123Systems.

“Both companies have multiple automotive and mass transit partners, not all of which have been disclosed… Both companies are pursuing consumer electronics, automotive and frequency regulation markets. Both companies have plant capacity… According to First Call, both companies are expected to report approximately $300 million in revenue in 2011.”

But a key difference is that Ener1 is trading at two times its estimated 2011 sales, while A123Systems is trading at six times. As a result, O’Neill said, “we believe the disparity between HEV and AONE is unsustainable.”

So where are oil prices heading now? Higher in the long-term, with some short-term factors likely to keep them volatile for months at a time. How volatile? As James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics, told MarketWatch, the unreal volatility of the past two years could continue: “2010 could be another with prices as low as $40 or as high as $110 or even higher.”

After dipping below $35 a barrel early in the year, crude oil prices steadily increased throughout 2009, closing at $78.87 on Wednesday. Last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that oil would average around $51 a barrel. They ended up averaging $62 a barrel, down from $100 a barrel in 2008.

And this year? The EIA is looking for crude oil to average about $79 a barrel and to once again rise through the year — to $82 a barrel by December 2010 from $75 a barrel early on. That will translate into higher pump prices as well. According to the EIA, gasoline retail prices will average $2.83 in 2010 (after peaking around $3 a gallon in the summer), up from the $2.35 a gallon average this year but below the $3.26 a gallon figure in 2008.

Longer-term, the imbalance of oil demand over supply that drove gas prices above $4 a gallon barrel will return. Charles Maxwell, an oil analyst at Weeden & Co., said in an interview with Bloomberg that global oil production will peak around 2015 and that demand from emerging economies will keep increasing.

“It’s mostly a surprise on the supply side, because of a combination of big, older oil fields becoming mature and not producing as much as we thought they might be able to,” Maxwell said in the podcast interview. “Combined with demand from emerging nations, it has put us in something of an energy pickle, particularly in oil.”

Maxwell said he expects oil to be around $69 a barrel in late 2010. Short-term factors, such as a truce in Nigeria, a major oil supplier to U.S. refiners, could add up to a million barrels a day to the world’s supply of oil, although recent concerns about the Nigerian president’s health could complicate that.

The EIA’s forecast assumes that the U.S. economy will grow by 1.9 percent in 2010. But the economy has proven to be as hard to predict as energy prices, and forecasters are increasingly divided over a return into recession or to robust economic growth.

What does all this mean for alternative energy? Short-term volatility may be a concern for energy traders and consumers watching gas prices, but not for green startups. In the long run, fewer expect there to be enough oil to meet demand. That means a growing market ahead for cleantech. It’s just a question of when.

That’s not First Solar’s fault. The company has a reputation of being transparent and offering conservative guidance. The problem is that there are so many unknowns facing the solar industry next year that no one — not First Solar, its competitors, customers or investors — can say with much certainty what will happen. So while several analysts raised their earnings estimates for First Solar next year, others said there are too many risks right now that keep the stock from being attractive to buyers. It all depends on how you read the scant tea leaves that are available.

One of the biggest questions concerns Germany, which accounted for 77 percent of First Solar’s revenue last quarter. The company has been offering rebates to customers in Germany, which helped push its average selling price down 22 percent year over year last quarter. But because the rebates are determined once a quarter according to market prices for solar goods, they’re nearly impossible to predict.

In addition, Germany is expected to cut back on solar subsidies in 2010. Somewhat paradoxically, this could boost demand in the first half of next year as projects are nailed down ahead of any cuts in subsidies, J.P. Morgan Analyst Christopher Blansett said in a note. For the second half, First Solar says it’s looking to the U.S. and China as well as new markets like India to pick up the slack.

John Hardy, an analyst at Broadpoint AmTech, sees net profit bottoming out in the second quarter of next year and then improving through 2011. First Solar’s addition of eight production lines in 2011 will be “an endorsement of a strong demand environment and robust pipeline,” Hardy said in a note this morning.

Other analysts reacted with a tone that was, if not bearish, then cautious. First Solar said it expects global demand for solar modules to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 35 percent through 2010. Jonathan Dorsheimer of Canaccord Adams said his expectation is for a much more modest 18 percent growth rate in that period.

Dorsheimer argued that First Solar faces risks by expanding its production capacity even as demand remains uncertain. Not only does the expansion pressure down margins — First Solar estimates they will fall to 38 percent next year from 54 percent last year — but the demand that the company is expecting may not emerge.

“The U.S. outlook seems very uncertain, and while there are a lot of headlines out of China, they lack a specific program of implementation,” Dorsheimer said in an interview. “First Solar is an excellent company, and it’s nice to see them stepping up and making this commitment. But there are some things that are difficult to predict. Our view is more cautious, but maybe they’re seeing something we are not.”

The solar industry has been under a cloud of uncertainty for more than a year. The difference now is that companies like First Solar are reacting not by retrenching but by expanding production. That raises the stakes by placing a big bet that customers will emerge to buy the ever-cheaper solar panels. But the question remains wide open for now: If First Solar builds it, will they come?

First Solar expects revenue in 2010 to come in between $2.7 billion and $2.9 billion, compared with the consensus figure among analysts of $2.4 billion. Diluted earnings per share will reach between $6.05 a share and $6.85 a share, versus the consensus number of $6.55 a share. First Solar estimates gross profit in 2010 will be around 38 percent of revenue and operating profit will be between 23 percent and 24 percent.

Shares of First Solar, which closed down 1.6 percent at $136.74 in active trading Wednesday, was trading as much as $5.6 percent higher at $1.44 in after-hours trading. It plans to invest between$500 million to $550 million on capital spending.

Gillette expressed cautious optimism about next year, saying that demand should improve in Italy, France and Spain, as well as among California utilities. That demand is rising at a time when inventories remain low and liquidity is improving in distribution sales channels. Overall, market demand will increase by 35 percent a year through 2012, he said.

“2010 will be stronger than 2009, although there are some question marks remaining,” including the uncertain demand in Germany. In addition, the supply of solar modules will exceed the demand for some time, which will pressure down prices.

First Solar CFO Jens Meyerhoff said the oversupply of polysilicon will keep prices between $40 per kilogram and $50 per kilogram in 2010. First Solar’s thin-film modules are less efficient than polysilicon, and appeals to customers with lower prices. So the plunge in polysilicon prices is pressuring thin-film prices down. Meyerhoff said First Solar’s guidance factors in its work to compete against falling polysilicon prices.

Gillette said First Solar is reacting to uncertainty in Germany by expanding into North America and China, while pushing into new markets such as Australia and Germany India. The company is on track to add new production capacity in Malaysia and France, as well as a new site that the company will announce by the end of the year, he said.

Image courtesy of First Solar.

On Monday, the bull camp won over a few more converts. JA Solar raised its guidance for the fourth quarter of 2009, expecting solar shipments to exceed 210 megawatts, compared with its previous estimate of shipments between 170 megawatts and 200 megawatts, thanks to “robust orders” from new and existing customers.

For all of 2010, JA said shipments would increase more than 60 percent to between 750 megawatts and 800 megawatts. JA Solar’s stock, which rose 16 percent during market hours (before the announcement), was up another 6 percent in after hours trading to $5.64.

Also boarding the bullish bandwagon is institutional investor Hugh Simon, who co-manages the Dreyfus Greater China Investment Fund (which has gained 118 percent this year). Simon told Bloomberg News that continued stimulus spending by the Chinese government on clean energy would push up Chinese solar stocks such as Suntech Power.

Chinese solar makers, supported by stimulus spending, have been winners in the brutal game of slashing solar costs. Suntech’s stock is up 49 percent so far in 2009, while Yingli Green Energy is up 152 percent and Trina Solar has risen 439 percent.

And last week, Shawn Kravetz, whose firm Esplanade Capital manages a solar-focused fund, said many mainstream investors don’t understand the solar sector and aren’t aware that many companies are profitable. In an interview with Reuters, Kravetz called solar “a meaningful market that can grow ten or 100-fold with companies trading at single digits.”

Experienced solar investors who have endured the past year of module overproduction, scarce credit, slack demand and plunging prices might be skeptical. After all, before the prices of solar stocks plunged, many were surging irrationally as the road to solar riches proved longer and rockier than expected.

So with big investors feeling bullish and companies like JA Solar ramping up production, does that mean the good times are back? Maybe not. If demand among cautious consumers, credit-hungry consumers and deficit-burdened governments doesn’t match increased production, the solar glut could continue.

Paul Lemming, an analyst at Soleil Securities, estimates that the amount of polysilicon for sale will increase by 70 percent as companies add new capacity. But he doesn’t see supply and demand coming into balance before 2011, meaning prices could fall even further. Polysilicon prices on the spot market have fallen to around $55 per kilogram, and Lemming sees them falling to around $35 per kilogram.

In short, the outlook for solar remains as volatile and uncertain as ever. A stronger economy could spur the demand for solar goods. But the solar industry is proving to be a highly cyclical one, where progress comes in fits and starts, and there could be more hard times before solar finally delivers on its mainstream promise.

Image courtesy of NREL.

In early November, Trony filed for a $200 million IPO without specifying a price range. Three weeks later, it said its offering would be priced between $9 and $11 a share, with the midpoint $10 a share figure implying a more ambitious $242 million take. Now, according to Renaissance Capital, Trony plans to raise just $151 million by offering 19.5 million ADS at a price range of $7.50 to $8.00.

A spokesman for Renaissance, which tracks data on stock offerings, said that underwriters altered the price range Wednesday afternoon. An overbought market and lingering concerns about thin-film module prices are adding to investor concerns.

Most of that capital — as much as $116 million — is slated to help Trony expand manufacturing lines and repay a loan. The rest will go to two existing shareholders, which are selling off half of their stakes in Trony: JP Morgan Special Situations is selling $29 million worth of shares, and Intel Capital is selling $23 million.

According to Photon Consulting, Trony Solar was China’s only thin-film solar module producer ranked among the ten biggest thin-film producers in the world. In its prospectus, Trony said its manufacturing capacity had reached 115 megawatts as of August and its average manufacturing costs was around $1.12 per watt.

Despite Trony’s 16-year history and its position as a leading Chinese thin-film solar manufacturer, investors are feeling jittery. Not only has there been a rise in the number of overall IPOs in recent months — amid rising concerns that the stock market in general has grown expensive — but concerns are also mounting about a glut of solar goods next year.

Concerns that polysilicon prices are pressuring thin-film makers into cutting prices has dampened enthusiasm in the sector. Share of U.S. thin-film company First Solar are down 2 percent in 2009, compared to a 13 percent gain in the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF (which reflects the performance of companies across several segments of the solar industry).

Despite Trony’s 28 percent net profit margin in the most recent quarter – a comfortable figure that IPO investors would normally welcome – the falling prices of solar modules have taken their toll. Trony’s gross margins fell to 39.8 percent of revenue last quarter, down from 44.9 percent in fiscal 2008.

That’s the picture being portrayed in solar earnings reports, and the conference calls to discuss them this week. Real Goods Solar said on Thursday that its revenue in the third quarter rose 122 percent compared with the same period last year, including the addition of companies it’s acquired in the past year. Excluding those acquisitions, revenue still grew 41 percent. John Schaeffer, Real Goods Solar’s president, said a lot of the increase came from homeowners. In a statement, he noted that the company saw “the return of strong demand for residential solar” during the third quarter.

Real Goods, whose stock rose 12 percent Thursday, is a relatively small company in the solar industry, with $60 million in revenue expected this year. But it’s one of the bigger players in the highly fragmented market for selling and installing solar systems, which offers it a good perspective on overall demand, supply and pricing.

In Real Goods’ earnings call Thursday, executives said that manufacturer prices had plunged 35-40 percent in the past year. Smaller solar installers bent on increasing volume have added fuel to the price drop. Real Goods maintains that it kept its margins higher than competitors, helping it to snap up other solar installers who priced themselves into losses.

Even so, margins dropped at Real Goods to 21.8 percent from 27.2 percent for the same quarter a year ago, partly because it acquired lower-margin companies. But as module manufacturers clear out their inventories, CEO Erik Zech said:

“It’s beginning to stabilize, and we are beginning to slow down [the dropping of] our prices as well. We’re not trying to race to the bottom as some smaller companies out there are doing. We’re trying to keep [average selling prices] up higher to benefit from margin expansion. But we are beginning to get to pricing bottom for the next three to six months, and what happens after that is anyone’s guess.”

In fact, Real Goods has shifted from a just-in-time strategy with suppliers such as Sharp and SunPower — which has cut its inventory in half in the past nine months — to rebuilding enough of a backlog that its installers can draw from it. “Supply and demand in the market has radically changed,” Zech said.

That should come as somewhat good news for solar module manufacturers, but not all are feeling so good. Evergreen Solar saw its stock rise 9 percent as it beat analyst expectations. But the company had to reassure investors that it had “significant cash to meet our operating needs” — which is like reminding someone you have enough blood to keep your heart going.

Evergreen also said it cut manufacturing costs by 17 percent to $2.24 per watt in the quarter. And it plans to do so further by outsourcing more of its work to Chinese manufacturers. But some analysts worried whether it could cut costs as fast as prices were falling.

Photo courtesy of Real Goods Solar

First, SunPower indicated last week that its 2009 revenue would be weaker than many investors had expected, sparking a selloff that has since stripped 24 percent from the stock’s market value. Then Germany, whose subsidies have been crucial for growth at SunPower and First Solar, indicated it may be softening its solar-friendly stance. Now First Solar has added to the sense of disappointment, saying that not only was revenue in the third quarter weaker than expected, but profit margins would continue to deteriorate.

In after hours trading, First Solar’s stock was down 16 percent at $128, its lowest level since early September. Despite a $1.79 a share net profit, which beat the Street’s expectations of a $1.74 a share profit, revenue came in at $481 million, significantly short of the $529 million that analysts had been looking for. As outgoing CEO Mike Ahearn explained, the Sarnia solar project in Canada wasn’t completed in the third quarter, delaying the recognition of some revenue.

Although we shipped all of the modules we produced in the quarter, we were unable to recognize revenue on shipments into our Sarnia project in Canada that represented about $58 million of revenue. This is truly a timing issue. That project has been sold, the contract wasn’t signed until early in the fourth quarter.

More disconcerting to investors was the decline in gross margins to 50.9 percent in the third quarter from 56.7 percent in the second, thanks to rebates that First Solar is offering in Germany. The rebates, announced a quarter ago, are now expected to pull gross profits further down – to between 41 percent and 44 percent of revenue this quarter. Operating income also shrank in the last quarter to 33.9 percent of revenue from 38.8 percent.

Other metrics offered some encouragement, but not enough to overcome the declining margins. Annualized capacity per line grew 2.5 percent in the quarter to 53 megawatts and overall production gained 1 percent to 292 megawatts. Efficiency increased 11 percent in the quarter, and manufacturing cost dropped to 85 cents per watt, a decline of two cents.

First Solar also has also seen some positive developments outside of Germany recently, including a 550-megawatt contract with Southern California Edison and a deal to build the world’s largest solar farm in China.

Still, the overall picture is that solar companies aren’t completely out of the woods yet. While the mood among solar investors is nowhere near as bleak as it was a year ago, when a global credit crunch threatened to curtail demand for solar panels just as a supply glut was developing, the outlook on solar installations remains discouragingly uncertain, especially concerning subsidies from European governments.

First Solar said its revenue in the quarter ended June 27 totaled $526 million, up 97 percent from the same quarter a year ago and up 26 percent from a year ago. Net income came in at $180.6 million, or $2.11 per share, compared with $69.7 million, or 85 cents per share, a year ago. Analysts had been looking for revenue of $459 million and a net profit of $1.62 a share.

First Solar’s revenue grew while its profit margins fell last quarter, adding further to profits. Its operating income rose to 38.8 percent of revenue in the second quarter, compared with an operating margin of 33.2 percent in the year-ago period.

Despite the strong showing, First Solar said its earnings guidance for all of 2009 would remain the same as it was three months ago: Revenue between $1.9 billion and $2 billion and operating margin between 31 percent and 33 percent, which is significantly lower than the margin in recent quarters.

Adding to concern, First Solar said that falling prices of polysilicon panels and financing constraints are slowing installations of thin-film projects in Germany, the company’s largest market. In response, First Solar is offering rebates and discounts on its products that could boost demand but also weigh down profits in coming quarters.

In after-hours trading, First Solar’s share price shot up as much as 10.6 percent higher from its official closing price of $173.55. But after executives discussed guidance in a conference call, the stock fell to $166.40. The stock has risen from $144 since on July 14 amid hope for the solar sector. Last Friday, SunPower also reported surprisingly strong earnings, sparking a rally that spread to other solar companies, including First Solar.

First Solar has been a flagship stock in the volatile solar sector, surging after its 2006 debut and even outperforming other stocks in harder times. But a number of analyst reports and stories in the financial press taken bearish views of the company’s future in recent months, arguing that prices of more efficient polysilicon solar panels were falling far enough to steal share from First Solar’s thin-film panels.

In the quarter ended June 30, EnerNOC saw revenue of $42.4 million, or 79 percent higher than the same quarter a year earlier and above the $39 million that analysts had estimated. Net loss totaled 29 cents a share, compared with a loss of 54 cents a share in the same quarter last year and narrower than the 33-cent loss average forecast of analysts.

The company also indicated that its financials for the rest of the year would come in stronger than Wall Street has been expecting. It raised its revenue estimate to a midpoint of $178.5 million vs. the Street’s estimate of $167 million, and a net loss of 81 cents a share compared with analyst expectations of a 98-cent loss. In after-hours trading, EnerNOC’s stock rose as much as 12 percent from its official Monday close to change hands for $27.70.

EnerNOC has been posting losses for years as it builds software infrastructure that helps utilities and their industrial customers — from manufacturers and data centers to hotels and retail chains – curtail non-essential energy usage, particularly during periods of peak demand. And as the company signs on more business, its losses are starting to shrink.

Gross margins, which rose to 42.8 percent in the second quarter from 37.5 percent a year earlier, are expected to stay there for the rest of 2009. EnerNOC saw negative cash flow of $10.2 million in the first half of 2009; it expects to turn cash-flow positive for the remainder of the year and to post a net profit in 2010.

“We’re starting to see what the business looks like as it reaches an ongoing mature business model,” said CEO Tim Healy in a conference call to discuss its latest results. “Adding new megawatts to our demand-response network doesn’t require the same kind of investment as it did in earlier stages when we were building our network.” Healy said EnerNOC is exploring expanding into the UK and other foreign markets.

He also said that EnerNOC plans to continue to focus on industrial customers — where there is “a lot of low-hanging fruit” — rather than working with utilities on building out a smart grid. “There are a lot of innings to be played in the whole smart grid, demand-response game,” he said. “Right now there’s enough demand on the industrial side that we can rest assured there‘s ample opportunity to focus on.”

Also on Monday, EnerNOC filed a form with the Securities & Exchange Commission declaring its intention to issue as much as $150 million of new equity or debt at an undetermined date and that existing shareholders might also sell up to $50 million of common stock.

SunPower’s stock surged 20 percent in after-hours trading Thursday after posting earnings that, while down from a year earlier, showed strong improvement over the previous quarter and was well above what analysts were expecting.

In the three months ended June 28, SunPower’s revenue fell 22 percent to $297.6 million from the same quarter in 2008, but grew 39 percent from the previous quarter. Net income totaled 26 cents a share, compared with a profit of 37 cents a share a year earlier and a net loss of 6 cents a share in the first quarter.

Excluding one-time items, SunPower’s profit was 24 cents a share, which was well above the 15 cents that analysts had been expecting. Its revenue in the quarter was 14 percent above the $261 million forecast by analysts. That stronger-than-expected performance pushed SunPower’s shares up 20 percent in after-hours trading to $29.71.

The company also boosted its guidance for the full year. While revenue guidance changed little, the company said it expects GAAP profit to be between 45 cents and 90 cents a share. Previously, it had expected a range of 25 cents to 75 cents.

In a call with analysts, CEO Thomas Werner said that the company added 100 global dealers in the quarter, bringing the total to 600, and that its share in the California solar market grew to more than 30 percent from 25 percent in the previous quarter. SunPower also reduced inventory by $80 million, or 23 percent, and lowered its average selling price by less than 10 percent in the second quarter, Werner said.

Other solar shares were up in after-market trading. First Solar and Suntech Power were both trading 5 percent higher. While it’s still early to be declaring that the worst is over for solar companies, SunPower’s earnings seem to be generating a sense that things aren’t as bad as expected, and that companies with strong management may eventually emerge from the recession battered, but positioned for growth.

Geothermal energy relies on heat from molten rock, which can get as hot as 5,000 degrees Celsius, and comes relatively close to the Earth’s crust. Magma creates reservoirs of superheated water that can be tapped, extracted and used to power turbines that generate electricity. Geothermal plants have been in operation for 100 years and they are a reliable source of power; unlike wind and solar power, geothermal energy is constant. “A geothermal plant’s high capacity factor also enables it to produce roughly three to five times more power than a wind or solar project of a similar size,” the prospectus notes.

But Magma is going public with significant losses. In the nine months through March 31, 2009, it brought in $3.2 million in revenue, mostly from energy sales, but posted a net loss of $2.6 million. More recently, however, the losses have narrowed. In the first three months of 2009, the company took in revenue of $1.9 million and posted a loss of $683,000.

Operating costs are low once the geothermal plants are set up, but the catch is those initial construction costs can be daunting. Most of the money Magma is raising in the IPO will go toward identifying geothermal reservoirs, drilling production and injection wells and building the plants: $27 million will go toward exploring four potential projects in Nevada and Utah, and $57 million will help fund early-stage exploration in 14 other sites in Nevada Oregon, Chile, Argentina and Peru.

And the exploration stage is fraught with risks, from earthquakes that are common to areas where geothermal reservoirs are found to a host of other complications. Magma lists some:

[H]azards such as unusual or unexpected geologic formations, pressures, downhole conditions, mechanical failures, blowouts, cratering, localized ground subsidence, localized ground inflation, explosions, uncontrollable releases or flows of well fluids, pollution and other physical and environmental risks are inherent in geothermal exploration and production.

But interest in geothermal energy has been increasing, thanks in part to Google.org’s campaigning. Though Google is particularly interested in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), which don’t rely on existing hot springs, but forces water into hot rocks wherever they are found. Magma’s prospectus mentions EGS as a next-generation approach that can yield 100 GW of U.S. energy capacity.

Despite its short operating history and significant losses, investors seem willing to trust that Magma will use its new capital to speed the company toward profitability. Whether that generous sentiment is spread to other potential cleantech IPOs, however, is less certain.

The dismal quarter wasn’t a surprise. Last quarter, Hoku explained that a change in revenue recognition was unfavorable to its financials this year. More worrisome — and the news that sent its stock dropping 41 percent in after-market trading Thursday — was that “going concern” part. It means that, if Hoku can’t raise enough cash in the next year, it may not be able to continue operations and could face bankruptcy.

The financial problem centers around a $390 million facility in Pocatello, Idaho, that Hoku hopes will start producing polysilicon for sale next year. To help finance the plant, Hoku had been signing contracts with solar customers like Suntech and Solarfun and receiving prepayments or deposits from them during construction.

In January, Hoku warned that some customers were having trouble making prepayments, with some renegotiating smaller contracts and others simply defaulting. In a press release Thursday, Hoku explained that the situation hasn’t improved since then and that if it can’t find new customers or raise new capital, the plant’s construction — and revenues from it — will be in jeopardy.

Hoku has since taken steps to reduce construction costs. It initially planned to produce its own trichlorosilane, a compound used in making silicon, but will now buy it from a third-party supplier. It’s also scaling back the number of reactors needed to power the plant at full capacity. But a delay in construction would not only add to overall costs, it could force Hoku to buy polysilicon on the spot market to meet its contractual obligations — or, the company said, even fail to meet those obligations.

Customers have committed to prepaying $243 million, $156 million of which Hoku has received (up from $106 million in January). Hoku has contributed another $41 million in cash, but it’s still shy $106 million to fully fund the new plant. For the rest of the money, the options are severely limited: It can sign up new customers, but there will be few wanting to sign contracts when polysilicon prices are plunging on the spot market. It can sell equity or debt or take out new loans, but capital is still scarce – especially to companies that start tossing the “going concern” phrase around in releases.

Hoku is working hard to come up with the cash. In a conference call, CEO Dustin Shindo said it’s in active discussions with several new customers in China, but added that: “[I]t’s fair to say [demand] is not as robust as it once was.” Hoku has also modified payment terms with more than 20 vendors for past-due and future payments.

In the quarter ended March 31, Hoku’s revenue fell to $112,000 from $621,000 in the same quarter a year earlier. Hoku posted a net loss of 4 cents a share, compared with a 12-cent loss a year earlier, thanks to lower costs. For the full fiscal year, revenue rose 54 percent to $5 million and the net loss fell to 15 cents a share from 26 cents a share.