Amid the rubble of the first generation of biofuel projects focused on ethanol derived from corn, a new landscape of biofuel tech has taken shape. As Lux Research puts it in a report released today, the companies range “from backyard brewers to billion-dollar industrial giants,” working in five key technology categories: fermentation, gasification, synthetic biology, chemical processes, and the political darling, algae. No single category offers a silver bullet for renewable fuels. Rather, Lux finds that each of the five categories “hosts promising producers and future failures.”

Given the amount of money pouring into these technologies from both public and private sources, how can we distinguish between the likely winners and losers? Based on factors like revenue per employee, patents, performance metrics, production capacity and other data, Lux has identified gaps between long-shot ventures that would make risky investments and weak partners, and companies with disruptive core technologies and other key characteristics that make them promising targets for mergers, acquisitions or licensing deals.

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Buggy Hybrids: Toyota and Ford’s problems with the electronic interface between the antilock braking system and regenerative braking system in their hybrids highlights how “bugs that nag us while in front of the computer have migrated to our cars. Rather than just a reboot, the fix in this case requires a software upgrade.” — CNET’s Green Tech

U2 Buys Into Geothermal, Carbon Trading: “[R]ock band U2 is now raising funds in Turkey to pay for the country’s Dora-1 geothermal plant. It is also selling carbon offset credits for $1.89 a pop,” to help “neutralize” the greenhouse gas emissions fans generate when they go to see the band play. — VentureBeat’s GreenBeat

EV Plans for Ex-Fiat Plant: An Italian private equity manager plans to build electric cars in Sicily when Fiat stops producing cars at a plant on the island next year. The $1.2 billion proposal aims to employ tech from India’s Reva “to produce cars as well as a network of recharging facilities powered by the sun.” — Financial Times

Same Supplier, Different Pedal: Honda, Nissan and Mitsubishi have disclosed that they are purchasing accelerator pedals for their vehicles from CTS Corp, which supplied the accelerator pedal recalled by Toyota, but they say the designs are different and have not caused problems in their vehicles. — Tech-On via Greentech Media

UN Climate Panel Under Fire: Just over two years ago, Rajendra Pachauri, who heads up the UN’s climate change panel, “seemed destined for a scientist’s version of sainthood.” Now he faces “accusations of scientific sloppiness and potential financial conflicts of interest from climate skeptics, right-leaning politicians and even some mainstream scientists.” — New York Times

As 2009 drew to a close, solar companies faced uncertainty as to whether the new year would bring recovery or a continuation of challenges stemming from oversupply and difficult financing. But Rhone Resch, head of the trade group Solar Energy Industries Association, or SEIA, expressed optimism this morning in a press call held along with leaders of the wind, hydropower, biomass and geothermal industries.

“I’m hopeful that 2010 will be the year that we actually break a gigawatt for just the photovoltaic industry alone,” he said. “We all thought 2009 was going to be a dreadful year in terms of installations and jobs,” and yet the sector created nearly 20,000 jobs. “We are just starting to regain our foothold to become a leading country in solar. This was not by accident,” he said, but largely because of provisions in the Recovery Act.

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Toyota’s ongoing recall and the safety concerns embroiling an automaker that climbed to the top of the global car market through a reputation for reliability, may offer an opportunity for competitors to seize market share, at least in the near term. But Toyota’s troubles, which most recently have spread to the automaker’s 2010 Prius hybrid model, could also offer something more lasting to companies ranging from General Motors to startups Fisker Automotive and Tesla Motors as they race to crank out plug-in vehicles: lessons in what works — and what doesn’t — when it comes to cultivation of rapid growth and a green halo.

In an automaker’s lineup, a “halo” car  is meant to cast a positive glow over a company or brand — showcasing technology, styling and smarts while also helping to define what the brand stands for and luring customers into showrooms to buy other models. The Prius did this to such remarkable effect for Toyota that the industry took notice. As GM-Volt tells it, the status Toyota acquired as “a media and environmental sweetheart” through the halo effect of the Prius helped inspire GM’s push for the plug-in Volt. But hanging so much of your reputation on one model also carries risk — and that can get lost in the green glow.

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The times they are a-changin’ for Fisker Automotive. The Irvine, Calif.-based startup working on a plug-in hybrid luxury sports car and mid-range plug-in sedan called Project Nina tells VentureWire it expects to close its $528.7 million loan with the Department of Energy by the middle of next month.

By the time that funding — awarded to help the company set up manufacturing in the U.S. and launch the luxury Fisker Karma model — comes through, Fisker expects to have its entire design, engineering, sales, marketing and administrative team located in its Irvine headquarters. According to a release from the company last week, Fisker plans to shutter a Pontiac, Mich., development facility opened in late 2008, bringing the 30 or so full-time Michigan positions out to California by March 1 as the startup gears up to “dramatically” expand hiring to accelerate development of the Nina model.

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Cash Money, Oil Money: The founders of Cash Money Records — Birdman and Ronald “Slim” Williams — have started an oil exploration company called Bronald Oil & Gas. — Business Insider

Siemens Targets Fifth of Smart Grid Biz: “Germany’s Siemens sees the world market for intelligent electricity networks roughly doubling to more than 30 billion euros ($40.98 billion) by 2014 and aims to take a fifth of that market.” — Reuters India

Rear-Wheel Drive Hybrid Cars in the Works at GM: General Motors’ two-mode hybrid powertrain, currently used only in trucks, “will migrate to rear-drive cars in the next generation, according to Tom Stephens, GM’s vice chairman of global product operations. — Automotive News via Edmunds Green Car Advisor

NOAA Hones in on Climate Change: “The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration launched a new climate service today, a reorganization effort aimed at improving long-range assessments of climate change, sea-level rise and severe weather. — Greenwire via NYT

Greentech IPO Scorecard: There are now more deals in the IPO pipeline than there have been for more than two years — and a number of those (Tesla, Codexis, Solyndra, Jinko Solar Holdings) happen to be high-profile public offerings in the greentech sector. — Greentech Media

Former hedge-funder-turned-greentech investor and philanthropist David Gelbaum has taken on a new role, as CEO of Entech Solar. A developer of concentrating solar modules and a daylighting system that’s scheduled to launch early this year, Entech Solar got its official start in 2008. That’s when solar installer WorldWater & Solar Technology acquired a 25-year-old development-focused firm called Entech, Inc. — in a deal that Gelbaum’s secretive Quercus Trust helped finance with a $35 million investment.

This move into the executive role for Gelbaum, who was already Chairman and a major shareholder for Entech Solar, comes on the heels of a rough year for the investor. In December 2009, he revealed that “a shift in my financial circumstances” had forced him to rein in philanthropic donations to organizations including the American Civil Liberties Union, Sierra Club and Iraq-Afghanistan Deployment Impact Fund of the California Community Foundation.

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Smart Grid Problem?: Smart at the Edge, Dumb in the Middle: Too much intelligence at the edge of a network, and not enough in the middle, makes for a volatile network, says Ray Gogel, president and chief operating officer of the Current Group.

Proterra Names Green Bus Plant Site, Closes on Funding: South Carolina’s poised to get some skin in the game of the green bus rush, as Colorado startup Proterra has just announced plans to set up a new assembly plant in the state in 2011.

Aptera Faces More Than Leadership Troubles After Founders’ Official Exit: According to a newsletter Aptera sent out this week, Aptera co-founder Steve Fambro “will leave the day to day operations” at the startup. The departure itself shouldn’t overshadow the very significant hurdles that Aptera now faces, no matter who’s leading it.

Cisco to FCC: 5 Suggestions for the Smart Grid: The Federal Communications Commission plans to make recommendations for how the National Broadband Plan should help shape the fledgling smart grid industry, and this week Cisco submitted a couple of key suggestions to the FCC.

Boston-Power Plowing “Full Steam Ahead” on Saab EV Project: Boston-Power CEO Christina Lampe-Onnerud told us this week its electric vehicle demonstration project is going “full steam ahead” with Saab, the loss-making auto brand that General Motors is selling to specialty car maker Spyker.

Think of it as a friendly backseat driver with a remarkable mind for calculating risk and a keen ability to cut your fuel use and emissions. That’s kind of how 7-year-old startup GreenRoad Technologies’ tool works for improving driver behavior through real-time feedback.

GreenRoad’s system uses sensors, an accelerometor, GPS and customized algorithms to calculate the relative risk of different driving maneuvers, then communicates that to the driver by illuminating either a red, yellow or green light. Installed mainly on commercial fleet vehicles (80 fleets so far), the device can have its algorithm customized according to a customer’s priorities, and it communicates information via cellular networks to GreenRoad’s data center. “The brains are in the vehicle,” GreenRoad marketing chief Eric Weiss told me this week, so even in areas without cellular coverage, drivers “always get real-time feedback.”

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South Carolina’s poised to get some skin in the game of the green bus rush, as Colorado startup Proterra, formerly called Mobile Energy solutions, has just announced plans to set up a new assembly plant in the state in 2011. Without specifying the expected capacity of the project, Jeff Granato, CEO of Proterra — which makes drive components and energy storage systems for electric and hybrid buses, delivery vans and other commercial models, as well as the vehicles themselves — said today at an announcement reported by local media that this will be the company’s first full-scale facility.

All well and good, but will this project sit in limbo, awaiting a green light on funds from the Department of Energy, like so many other green vehicle manufacturing plans? No, spokesperson Sarahjane Sacchetti told us today. She said a private equity investment is “being finalized,” and incentives have already been secured at the state and local level for the project.

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